Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
