Day-to-Day Killings in Mexico Drop 37% In President Sheinbaum, As per Official Statistics
The mean number of daily murders per month in Mexico has decreased by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, as stated by recent administrative statistics. But, security experts have advised that homicide data could fail to signal improved national stability.
Notable Reduction in Daily Averages
Officials reported an average of close to 55 killings a day in last November versus almost 87 when the President assumed the presidential office in September of last year. This information was delivered by the chief of the country’s federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on Tuesday.
“The outcome in murders that we have seen during these months is remarkably significant,” Sheinbaum remarked, noting that last month the least amount of homicides were registered for any November in the past 10 years.
Recent Context and Government Strategy
Intense cartel infighting, combined with the administration's heavily military campaigns to combat the trafficking organizations, have made Mexico’s homicide rate escalate in the past few years. The figure peaked at a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the country’s national statistics agency.
That gave Mexico a homicide rate over four times greater than that of the United States. Since then, killings have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her national security strategy for an apparently sharper drop in killings this year.
At a news briefing in the summer, the head of state stated: “There is a strategy, we have tracking of the strategy, and there is specific tracking town by town in certain cases. The approach functions. And we have to continue working at it each day.”
The key components of the President's security plan include:
- Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
- Advancing information gathering and investigative work.
- Enhanced coordination between government agencies.
Analyst Skepticism and Statistical Concerns
But, public safety analysts cautioned that using murder statistics to paint a picture of improved security was misleading. This is especially true in light of the rise in other criminal activities such as people going missing.
“That would be excellent information if this were a reduction, but I think we must not just focus on the murder numbers and say: ‘Oh well, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican organised crime. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”
According to the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall fell by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year compared with the same period last year. Yet, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in some states have surged by as much as 200%.
“Numbers on murders is no longer valid for gauging the situation of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who do not have the ability or the inclination to properly recognize and categorize remains. Second, organized [criminals] … have the ability to mask violent acts through disappearances.”
Vargas noted that relying on monthly averages of daily homicides was also concerning because it might obscure periods when there were especially high numbers of killings.
“Relying on the per-day mean makes high peaks of violent crime invisible,” he said.
Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Success
Where the government can highlight the effectiveness of its security plan is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 people were arrested between October 2024 and November 2025 for high-impact crimes, according to official figures. More than 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tonnes of drugs seized.
“The former US president cannot claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s extremely politically advantageous,” stated Vargas.
Persistent Unrest and Public Frustration
But notwithstanding these measures, Mexico is still grappling with high bloodshed, with multiple regions in the midst of cartel-fueled conflict. Recently there was a prominent killing of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the past year.
A short time later, thousands of protesters took to the streets in Mexico City and across the nation to voice their outrage at corruption and drug violence.
“The federal government shares [data] in a manner to build a narrative of safety. From a political standpoint it’s highly effective, socially it’s very debatable,” Vargas concluded.