Starmer's Backers Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a coordinated effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.

Significant Barriers in the Candidate Selection Process

Several figures on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to head off any future leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he caused anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

A number of sources also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to mount a strong challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.