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Initially, Donald Trump seemed to adopt a firm stance concerning Ukraine. Following issuing warnings of "serious consequences" last August in case Russia's president continued obstructing truce discussions, he finally imposed considerable restrictions on Russia's biggest energy firms, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move seriously affected the Russian leader's capability to fund his war effort in Ukraine.

But, with his latest detailed peace plan for Ukraine, which was drafted by both nations' representatives excluding Ukrainian or EU participation, the former president has apparently returned to his pro-Putin stance.

Benefiting Invasion

This initiative would effectively favor Putin for occupying a sovereign nation while leaving the country's political freedom in jeopardy. Although ringing declarations that "Ukraine's autonomy will be upheld", much of the initiative effectively undermine that same autonomy. Seen as a Kremlin dream would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Demonstrating his business experience, the former president continues to treat the war as a basic land disagreement, as if ceding Russia a portion of Ukrainian land will appease the leader. But, Russia's military campaign is not only about dominating a charred region of deindustrialized area in Ukraine's east. Rather, it is about Ukraine's political system – and Putin's clear goal to weaken it so it stops acts as an appealing model for the Russia's population of the responsible governance that Putin's growing autocracy prevents them.

Border Concessions

Although keeping in place the currently separated oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the plan would require Ukraine to surrender the entire Donetsk region. In addition to benefiting the Russian Federation with territory that its forces have been unsuccessful to capture in more than a decade of warfare, this surrender would make Ukraine's defenses dangerously undermined.

The area is the site of the nation's well-known "stronghold system", the well-established defensive positions that constitute a essential impediment to enemy progress. Trump would have the Ukrainian military surrender these fortifications, giving Russian forces a unobstructed way to Kyiv if he eventually opt to resume the conflict.

Defense Restrictions

Additionally, in a move that would enable renewed hostilities more feasible for the Russian military, the plan would force the nation to diminish the numbers of its armed forces from their current approximately 800,000 personnel to a limit of 600,000. Notably, the proposal imposes no similar limits on Russian forces.

Seemingly as a concession to Putin's attempts to portray Ukraine's democratically elected leadership as Nazis, Trump's plan asserts: "Every extremist belief system and actions must be condemned and prohibited." Seemingly to highlight this point, it insists that "Ukraine will hold political contests in this period" of a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, Trump imposes no condition that the Russian leader risk his authoritarian rule by allowing elections in Russia.

Protection Assurances

To be sure, the proposal makes the Russian Federation commit not to "attack other states" and to "incorporate in regulation its stance of non-aggression towards the EU and the Ukrainian people". Yet considering that Putin has broken similar accords in the past – including the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia promised to recognize Ukraine's borders in exchange for giving up its Soviet-era atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow agreed to a halt in fighting and a handback of seized land in eastern Ukraine to the government – why should anyone believe Russia this time?

That is why Ukraine has been so adamant on international security guarantees. While the initiative warns of a "immediate joint armed reaction" in case the Russian Federation renew its military campaign, and states that "The nation will receive dependable defense commitments", the details range from fuzzy to alarming. The initiative would not only deny the nation alliance membership but also prevent alliance nations from stationing forces on Ukraine's soil, thereby blocking the peacekeeping contingent, presumptively headed by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to deter Russia from replenishing his diminished forces, restocking, and resuming aggression.

Global Concern

An additional side agreement apparently would provide the nation with a alliance-like protection assurance, in which any later "serious, planned, and ongoing military assault" by the Russian Federation on the country "shall be regarded as an assault jeopardizing the tranquility of the allied countries." That suggests a armed reaction. Yet in contrast to a strong Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's best defense against future hostilities – the credibility of the parallel accord would hinge on the dedication of Nato leaders, including the US administration, to act militarily to Putin's hostilities, something they have {not