‘They Misjudged’: How the Reform Juggernaut Backfired in a Wales Special Election.
Yuliia Bond manages dual employment, cares for two children, and is studying at university. Last autumn, she also found time to challenge Reform UK when it sought to secure the Caerphilly constituency byelection.
Bond, a refugee from Ukraine who has settled in south Wales, explained she could not remain silent as Reform aimed to win the seat in the Senedd, the parliament of Wales.
“Members of our Ukrainian community spoke up,” Bond remarked. “We challenged the disinformation because we wanted to prevent our neighbours from being misled into feeling anger towards us. I didn’t want people turning against us because of lies. So I voiced my concerns and others did, too.
“Reform UK attempted to create panic and hate with strategies used not only in the UK, but by far-right political parties all over Europe and around the world. The rhetoric they used in Caerphilly didn’t feel local. They felt borrowed – as if someone copied a script from another country and dropped it through our doors.”
A Confident Campaign Meets Grassroots Resistance
The party, associated with Nigel Farage, was certain it could win the byelection, especially as Labour, the dominant party in Wales for a century, seemed to be declining rapidly. An energetic campaign by the Welsh nationalists, Plaid Cymru – and individuals such as Bond – successfully blocked the right-leaning party.
“Their greatest mistake was assuming that people here have little independent thought,” Bond argued. “They thought nobody would check the facts. They assumed that refugees are not just in need, but somehow stupid. That is not true. We may have fled a war, but we are not stupid. We understand policies.”
One of Reform’s key claims was that the Welsh government’s sanctuary nation scheme showed both it and Plaid supported a “large-scale immigration agenda” and that “asylum seekers” were receiving “preferential treatment”. The claim did not hold water – more than 80% of the sanctuary funds had been spent on supporting Ukrainian refugees.
Bond noted: “When I saw the leaflets, all I could see was a clear attempt to create division, to blame a small group, and increase hostility in a place that had been welcoming to us.
“It failed in Caerphilly because the Ukrainian community and refugees from different backgrounds are not strangers. We are integrated into the community. People know us.
“They see us at school gates, in shops, at work, giving our time. They know what we contribute. The picture in the leaflet simply contradicted reality. Most residents could feel that something was off. It felt like deception, not truth.”
The Result and Lasting Lessons
Bond spoke in the “gratitude orchard” in Caerphilly, planted by members of the Ukrainian community as a token of appreciation for the kind reception they have received.
She said the presence of Reform had placed a burden on Ukrainian people in the area. “Those in a difficult position should not have to bear this burden. Yet, during the election, we had to speak out first. Only later did support come – from local residents, politicians from different parties, and local media.”
There are full Senedd elections in May when Reform has hopes of the leading party in Wales.
Bond said people opposing Reform in Wales in May and in other elections across the UK had to challenge the party’s messages quickly and with certainty.
“As a Ukrainian, I know how harmful disinformation can be. The war in Ukraine did not start with weapons. It started with disinformation, biased information and lies that paved the way for violence.
“Disinformation must be challenged early, forcefully and unambiguously, because hate spreads faster than facts. The two months of that byelection were genuinely exhausting. We just had to get through it. But we endured together, and that is why the hate campaign was unsuccessful in Caerphilly.”
The Successful Campaign’s Perspective
For Lindsay Whittle, the successful Plaid candidate, the aftermath the byelection was a whirlwind. Public recognition was widespread.
Whittle said both Reform campaigners and their opponents had believed the party might sweep all before them. She said: “The thought was that they’d spend obscene amounts of money and defeat us.”
So how did they halt the juggernaut? One reason, Whittle believes, is that Plaid ran an positive, optimistic campaign. “Don’t attack anyone personally because people dislike that. Keep the message positive. Try and unite people.
“People in Caerphilly have friends of different nationalities and they disapprove of people targeting their friends. Voters recognise that without newcomers coming to this country, you’re not going to have an NHS or social care. I think Reform underestimated the people of Caerphilly.”
While Whittle made the front pages, an intense local campaign was taking place in the background. Committed party members knocked on thousands of doors.
“We think it was the crucial byelection we’ve ever fought,” one campaigner said. The victory was attributed to strong policies – and people who believe in them passionately.
Local Observations and Expert Analysis
A local editor was surprised at how polarising the campaign was. “We had communities clashing with each other, campaign posters removed, really sharp debates online. I was raised in this area and I know everyone’s kind so to see that side come out was a shock.”
The turning point is believed to have been a televised debate when an audience member challenged the Reform candidate, stating that people with family members not born in the UK did not feel welcome since Reform had arrived.
“That was someone from our community who had a mixed race family explicitly stating the impact all this rhetoric had,” the editor said. “Caerphilly isn’t the most multicultural of places but we’ve always been open to people from overseas. That was the line in the sand.”
A politics lecturer and native of the area provided a unique perspective on the byelection.
He said Plaid was remarkably successful in presenting the election as a direct contest between two parties – but this will be harder at the Senedd elections in May when a new proportional system is introduced.
“It tended to be somewhat uninformed or, at times, condescending. But Caerphilly is not a post-industrial wasteland passively absorbing whatever political winds blow from England – it has its own political traditions and, like Wales more broadly, it has its own character and can’t simply be interpreted through the lens of what is happening in England. It was satisfying to see my home town defy those simplistic assumptions.”